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The Inevitable War on Iraq!

People seem to be irrational till you look closer. Take a look at George Bush Jr for instance. Were you in his shoes, what would you most fear repeating? His father's mistakes, I'd say. Bush Sr ignored the economy and banked his re-election on his Gulf War victory. But John Q. Public, while enjoying the most excellent re-runs of aerial shots of bunker-busting precision bombs, soon started worrying about mundane necessitites like his next meal. And Bush Sr lost an election.

So, one would think that Jr, assuming that the early binging years haven't taken too high a toll on his grey matter, would be worried about the economy. Yet, here he is, in the middle of a recession, possibly leading to a deflation, proposing a tax cut before a war which is going to cost gobs of money (conventional wisdom calls for more taxes to pay for the war). And not just any tax cut, but a permanent $674 billion one at that. And furthermore, a tax cut which most experts agree will do little to stimulate the economy.

So, what gives? Is Jr destined to go the way of Sr, suffering the wrath of the people after they see their shrinking paycheck? Or does Jr have an ace up his sleeve. Think about Iraq. What does it have? Oil. Pools of it, at less than 2000 ft under the ground. 11% of the world's reserves. And not just any oil, but light crude, ideal for gasoline. Unlike the heavy crude found in most of the U.S. which is more suitable for making asphalt.

Inspite of some apologists holding onto that forlorn security-threat justification for an Iraq war, oil has long been recognized as a lucrative spoil of war in such bastions of conservative thinking as the Wall St Journal. And Thomas Friedman, in a recent New York Times Op-Ed piece, proposed that a war for oil security is not such a bad thing. Furthermore, one other reason for controlling oil has been missed by most mainstream media. It is that our military strength will shrivel up and atrophy without oil. Talk all you want about alternative energy sources, and lessening our dependence on oil, but an F-16 cannot fly on solar power, at least not for a few decades, and all that talk by the Pentagon about our National Security Strategy where we single-handedly rule the world will come to nought if we don't have oil. So, why not select an oil-rich country, preferably run by a despot, fabricate and propagandise suitably noble reasons, invade it and control its oil. In the aftermath of 911, Iraq presented itself as just such a victim.

And the reward? Within a year of the war (2004 spring), we can repair the ancient Iraqi oil infrastucture (think Halliburton) and drive down the price of oil. Cheap oil will boost the U.S. economy and a $1000 tax rebate for John Q. Public could be handy on the family summer trip to Disneyland. A year to forget the slaughter of innocent Iraqi civilians, mute the world's anger at U.S. imperialism, and turn our thoughts back to the innocent pleasures of shopping at Walmart and eating at McDonald's. Oh, and George Jr, he's not so bad after all, let's give him another four years.

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